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On top of direct military expenditures, Smetters projected an additional economic loss to the United States alone of approximately $115 billion, with a wide band of uncertainty stretching from $50 billion all the way to $210 billion. “Again, [there’s] more uncertainty at the top end,” he noted, flagging that the upside risk is greater than the downside. That broader economic impact accounts for disruptions to trade, energy markets, and financial conditions that a sustained conflict in the Middle East typically triggers.